My Journey

From Apr 2026 – Jul , Iran war adds to eccentrical trading, extreme ends. AI trade has slow then for MAG7 due to debt raising. Oil price spikes up on down on news flow, market view is really wrong reading the new fed chairman.

Macro Picture:
Software indexes stablized due to AI deflationary picture.
Fed will still continue to cut rates in 2026, 1 cut? 0.25pct due to much improved CPI view.

Big Portfolio move:
Semi-conds/AI upstreams did really well esp in kospi and taiwan index, however it coming back down in reality. STI surprising is strong, i guess ME money is coming in here.
i sold off CHPY for some profits 5k, Thanks god, paypal my old holdings i have sold off as well for 4k profit.

However i become bagholders for NVDA, ORCL, MSFT !
I am also building up the recent sold off upstream AI , of Qualcomm and DRAM and rebuilding tax-free CHPY

Outlook & Target
Trimming individual stocks positions and index exposure after July earnings. Increasing cash to 10% or shift to all seasons / defensive portfolios.

The portfolio gain is due to additional of SYFE and Endowsus holdings.

End of Q4 2025, its not a smooth ride, AI trade has slow then, including crypto crashes so far 30%. This is after the new Fed chair is nominated, the market slam a brake.

During CNY Trump lost his tariff cases at the supreme court, he has thrown some tantrum of raising all countries tariff to 15%.

Macro Picture:
Software indexes crashed 20-30% due to AI deflationary picture.
Fed will still continue to cut rates in 2026, 2-3 cuts 0.25pct.
Emerging is strong due flight of US dollars.
This is excluding China still not impressing.

Big Portfolio move:
DCA-ing 1k per motnh S&P500 through Cash Syfe platform : VWRA and EIMI
DCA Endowsus, Core portfolio SRS only

The downturn, several positions got whacked like paypal, alibaba.
i was buffered by strong gains in syfe custom porfolio in gold/silver, XLE, miners etc.

i begin to see value in NVDA and MSFT…and buying the dip.
My core holding depends on BABA still…on result coming in March.
i’ll update the blog after March 5

*updated, Iran war on-going* 🙁

After Trump Mayhem on the markets, all the markets V-shaped bounce to ATH, including SSE, HSI & even STI !

Lesson : Resilient to stay invested to prove the right choice. Diversification of portfolio remains a key to ride this crazy times.

Sep Macro picture:
Bigger news: Fed starts to cut 25 basis point at Sep, Oct, Nov.

Big Portfolio move:
Sold mostly in Endowus buy back via DCA for S&P500 core portfolios
Sold 40k SSE index near 3900, i remain skeptic on Trump/Xi meeting outcome
Sold OCBC Roboinvest (Cash is king) $47k , profit $7k

The below exclude 50k bond fund IPO investing, 50k Endowus and 40K Syfe porfolios.

Below is representative of stocks, etf , i bought portseido porfolio to help me manage the tracking

The above is further reduction of USA (US dollar) allocation exposure.

The mayhem happened, i didn’t do anything except for trading at the lows.

At first i thought i was spared with USA sell-down, the first leg it didn’t affect me as i have sold off all my US core holdings. However the protracted declaring of trade war lead to mass decline of all markets, including treasury bonds! i sold off my gold and TLT hedges but it wasn’t enough to cover the loss of profits i have gain over the months.

i will need to slice my holdings to risk dimensions in term of types, i hope my weekly DCA from bottom 5400 will bear fruits later as well.

It is volatile and frightening period to invest in this quarter, as market feels like cliffhanger at the moment.
China economic stimulation is around the corner to capture this, the market might run ahead.

By God grace: the portfolio still leap from $258k to 340k.

This is strong contribution from SG stocks pick and US stock.
Seatrium, yanlord & paypal.

Main worries is US is entering recession with the on-going wars in between

Add: Cash as position, gold / oily stocks as hedge.

US tech market has fallen into momentum mode. Last night NVIDIA faces heavy selling

1. Reduce capital on individual stocks ( too much energy to monitor)
   1. Reducing in progress. 

2.  Satellite Portfolio and Stocks remains, Increase Core Portfolios or Income (defensive cash)

Endowus

Overview total Cash + SRS:

Review: Core is doing very well on the tech bull of Mag7 dragging S&P up , this is on top of the recovery of China EM & S&P

Syfe $25k

Portfolio consists of China funds to consolidate further.
USA stock picks: Alibaba ADR, SEA, Paypal, Novo Disk

Endowsus / Syfe Robo : 86K

Unit Trust Funds: 50k
OCBC div Cash Funds
DBS EM Funds.

Stocks $100K

STI is super weak 2.2% this quarter.
Genting 30 lots
Seatrium 100 lots
Strait Asia 5 lots
HSI Tech 85 lots

Total: $236k

S&P 500 rallied super strongly in year end 15% , leaving EM to the dust . Too much concentration risk on HST.

Lesson learnt

Reduce capital on individual stocks ( too much energy to monitor)

Satellite Portfolio remains, to pump into Core Portfolios.

My humble holdings are still small :
Syfe / Endowus

Once after i rebalance , will publish the size

Target portfolio, beat S&P ? 😀

• Discernment post to follow.

• US 10 yields rocketing, there a minor dip in markets
• Israel war adds to global uncertainty.

This moment of writing, everything seems to be simmering down.

Good thing is inflation is going down at USA, China/US relationships improving

China more forceful rescue to property market, trying to adjust my portfolio to benefit this.

China has sudden draft on gaming rules. 20% down on Tencent.