My Journey

Hunker down worked during this period of uncertainty however missed out the AI mania where QQQ nasdaq outperformed Dow.

Shift 60/40 portfolio to Higher income 80/20

World index is resilient as Nikkei/Kospi outperformed!

+Asia tech / Disruptive tech gain.
– China tech, lost all the gains for the year.

Lesson learnt: sold too early my winner for China healthcare, as it doubled its dividend! looking for entry

Shifting back to World index, as US economy is more resilient than expected. too much bears?

Economic
China reopening faltering,
US debt ceiling fright resolved.
AI mania for certain stock

Lehman style crisis starting??

Started position for a “bad news” that is a credit event, let see this is a overreaction or really there’s something more. I’m doing a stress test of portfolios with my spare cash!

Moneyowl 40% Equity 80% Bonds (Dimensional)

10 March 2023 Drop factor 2.8% vs 2.4%

Endowsus 20% Equity 80% bonds (Higher Income)

10 March 2023 Drop factor 2.8% vs 0.2%

My equities exposure are China tech & Healthcare that have relatively nothing to do with US bank crisis. but still closely monitoring now.

Strategy : Brace and hunker down, fed terminal yield have dropped crazily, i think it has peaked!

Economic situation

+China reopening
+US economies still holding up

• mortgage US housing crisis ( new lows )
• venture banks collapse ( SVB )

Geopolitics
– US China Relation deuterating

My stocks portfolio ex funds year end. Incidentally, it only has 3 counters actually. Healthcare/China tech and Oil & Gas.

The strategy paid off with combination of DCA of HSI tech and maintaining O&G sembmarine counter.

There could be large downturn in 2023 Q1 & Q2, i’m rotating the profits out China tech & Oil to even more defense sectors such as healthcare & value stocks and even gold.

CPF/SRS: Endowsus
Cash: OCBC or Syfe
DBS digit portfolio: Asia funds (Fast & Furious). i am considering retiring the fund as i do not like the Reits components

Oct/ Nov is in super volatile period, major tech firms (FAANG?) are bashed down and it got held up by DOW,  i’ll still DCA on Amundi Prime USA fund.

Strategy across adding Cash to Singapore SSB when selling out
Oil 30% Sembmarine holding it for M&A prospect.

New deal for Sembmarine! Added another 25%. Energy is back up nicely. Will reduce after the merger due the dilution of shares.

Lion-tech HSI, i have triple down aggressively on this HSI has dropped till 14K level and back up to 16K. 14K is 1997 level this is too huge a discount even with a regime change.

OCBC Robo: Singapore Cash is King 100% equity 60% (DCA)
OCBC Robo: Stable Reits 30% ( HALT) Reit’s doesn’t perform well in rising interest reits, the risk premiums still factoring the stock price. Anyway its already down 15% at this moment.
OCBC Robo: Precious Metals 10% (HALT)

DBS Asian Core, Equities 80%/Fixed Income 20% (DCA) Continue RSP
To double down for Singapore banks ETF & China / India / Japan funds.

Strategy across to reduce during Dec/Jan Rally

Update on Oct, imminent downside coming.

Adding Cash (Singapore SSB)
Oil 30% Sembmarine holding it for M&A prospect.

OCBC Robo: Singapore Cash is King 100% equity 60% (DCA)
OCBC Robo: Stable Reits 30% (DCA)
OCBC Robo: Precious Metals 10% (HALT)

i have cashed out the below portfolios, and it has intend taken a dip. the correlations are strong between these, fundamentally nothing has much changed, Russia has a “workaround” selling its ware through China etc. In fact commodity/resources have a even higher beta on economic cycle. Still searching for alternative for inflation hedge, but still SSB is at 2.75% is good enough for small investor me.

Endowsus Core S&P500 100% DCA SRS (HALT)
Endowsus Satellite Commodity 10% CASH (HALT)
Endowsus Satellite Resource 10% CASH (HALT)

DBS Asian Core, Equities 80%/Fixed Income 20% (DCA) Continue RSP

NTUC Asia Fund/Global bond fund 15k > RSP
Prudential Emerging Fund/Global tech fund. > 12K down to 9k, continue to RSP

War is still raging but quiet down.
S&P and Dow has fallen almost technical bear market at 20%.
Will continue to trade & DCA per month. My portfolio is hardly risky and fairly conservative at the moment.

Stocks: (Remain/ add)
Luxury items 45% (SOLD with 5k profit), China tech (Trade position)
Healthcare / Agri tech 45%
Oil 30% (Increase to 30%)

OCBC Robo: Singapore Cash is King 100% equity 60% (DCA)
OCBC Robo: Stable Reits 30% (DCA)
OCBC Robo: Precious Metals 10% (HALT)

Endowsus Core S&P500 100% DCA SRS
Endowsus Satellite Commodity 10% CASH
Endowsus Satellite Resource 10% CASH

DBS Asian Core, Equities 80%/Fixed Income 20% (DCA)

NTUC Asia Fund/Global bond fund 15k > RSP
Prudential Emerging Fund/Global tech fund. > 12K down to 9k, continue to RSP

Due to the protracted period of war, inflation pressures looms, i’m halting investment on index funds and impending recession.

Prudent allocations to stocks with strong cash flows and with direct correlation with inflation. Singapore seems a safe harbor with commodities and strong reits with little exposure to western countries especially europe.

Stocks: (Remain/ add)
Luxury items 45%
Health / Agri tech 45%
Oil 10%

OCBC Robo: Singapore Cash is King 100% equity 60%
OCBC Robo: Stable Reits 30%
OCBC Robo: Precious Metals 10%

Endowsus S&P500 100% (Halted) SRS
DBS Asian equities 100% (Halted)

NTUC Prime/Global bond fund 15k > RSP
Prudential Emerging Fund/Global tech fund. > RSP

Strategy:

There’s no proof that rising interest rate will lead to the stock bear market.

3 years roadmap:

OCBC Robo: Singapore Cash is King 100% equity

Endowsus S&P500 100%

DBS Asian equities 100%

Switch to Endowsus Income fund on stabliity.

Missing years indeed as above this is a extraordinary pandemics years

Paid up beauty world loan / part of HDB.

Both of my properties are having fixed low interest.

1.4% UOB
1.5% DBS

Not much movement of investment for me.

Oct is always a fearful month for investing loom, everyone r drunk by the all the record breaking highs during the last quarter 2017.

Investment Climate:

Positive tax reform and new fed chairman set the direction for next year.
China XI reform on 19th congress meeting

RISKS:

1. Political unrest and turmoil
2. China property bubble :- In tier-one cities, property costs are likely to be between 50 and 100 years of household income. At the peak of Japan’s property bubble, it was about 20 in Tokyo. China’s residential property value may have surpassed the total in the rest of the world combined. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-11/andy-xie-warns-bubble-economy-set-burst-political-tension-soars
3. Bitcoin bubble 97B with no backing?
4. Nasdaq bubble? Amazon PE ratio is 500/-