Lehman style crisis starting??
Started position for a “bad news” that is a credit event, let see this is a overreaction or really there’s something more. I’m doing a stress test of portfolios with my spare cash!
Moneyowl 40% Equity 80% Bonds (Dimensional)
10 March 2023 Drop factor 2.8% vs 2.4%
Endowsus 20% Equity 80% bonds (Higher Income)
10 March 2023 Drop factor 2.8% vs 0.2%
My equities exposure are China tech & Healthcare that have relatively nothing to do with US bank crisis. but still closely monitoring now.
Strategy : Brace and hunker down, fed terminal yield have dropped crazily, i think it has peaked!
Economic situation
+China reopening
+US economies still holding up
- mortgage US housing crisis ( new lows )
- venture banks collapse ( SVB )
Geopolitics
– US China Relation deuterating